The Uncertainty of Longevity and Immortality Investments
The longevity industry blends ambition and science, but challenges in regulation and evidence raise doubts about its viability.
The quest for immortality, pursued by humanity since ancient times, is now backed by significant investments from tech billionaires and start-ups within the burgeoning longevity industry. This sector blends science, ambition, and speculation, but its progress is hindered by challenges in regulation, profitability, and proven effectiveness. Figures such as Hal Finney, who opted for cryonic preservation, and Peter Thiel, linked with experimental anti-ageing foundations, reflect the current mainstream interest in outliving mortality. Major players like Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and Google executives are funding initiatives like Altos Labs and Calico Labs, which focus on cellular rejuvenation and life extension technologies. Despite their efforts, the industry is at a crossroads: it could either achieve groundbreaking mainstream transformation or remain a niche populated by speculative ventures. For instance, the US FDA currently does not classify ageing as a disease, inhibiting the approval of anti-ageing treatments. Meanwhile, start-ups in the field, despite securing over $400 million in venture capital this year, face hurdles such as unclear medical outcomes and weak proof-of-concept business models. At the same time, methods to measure ageing scientifically remain undefined, raising questions about accountability and effectiveness. Investors like Bayer’s Leaps fund attempt to evaluate the impact of their initiatives through alternative metrics, such as Wellbeing Adjusted Life Years (WALYs). However, the volatile nature of such ventures, compounded by the difficulty of obtaining widespread credibility and regulatory support, limits the industry's prospects as a profitable and scalable market. While achieving immortality is an attractive dream for many, current endeavours appear more like bold gambles than sustainable investments.