Altus Group outlines macroeconomic influences, sector-specific trends, and key market insights influencing US commercial real estate in 2025.

Altus Group's recent report explores critical trends shaping the US commercial real estate (CRE) market, highlighting macroeconomic influences, sector dynamics, and noteworthy events. Construction spending displayed consistent growth in late 2024, totalling over $2.1 trillion for the year, signalling robust private non-residential developments. However, job market analysis suggests a softening, with significant declines in job openings and slower hiring, reflecting headwinds within office-using industries. Notable gains in healthcare and consumer-facing industries, like leisure and retail, indicate continued strength in medical office spaces and logistics-oriented facilities, while the office sector grapples with demand challenges. The Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy, due to resilient employment and rising inflation, is likely to sustain elevated borrowing costs, delaying expected rate cuts until mid-2025. A dip in consumer sentiment points to potential challenges for hospitality and retail sectors amidst inflationary pressures. Additionally, emerging trends such as the moderation of data centre investments, leadership changes at HUD prioritising privatisation, and significant loan maturities highlight evolving market complexities. Amazon's mixed success in physical retail marks a strategic shift, prioritising grocery operations and third-party tech licensing. CRE professionals can expect influences from regulatory changes, environmental policies, and upcoming key events, with heightened focus on adaptability in an evolving landscape.